Why Carlos Alcaraz's US Open Defence Is Suddenly in Doubt

Last updated: 11 July 2026

Carlos Alcaraz is back on a tennis court, but the ball is travelling gently and his serve is stopping before contact. Those brief training clips have become the focus of an increasingly tense debate over whether the Spaniard can defend his US Open title. Alcaraz remains sidelined by the wrist injury he suffered in Barcelona, has skipped the Canadian Open and is now racing to be ready for Cincinnati in mid-August.

How Events Unfolded

The injury occurred during the Barcelona Open in April. Alcaraz beat Otto Virtanen but later withdrew before facing Tomas Machac, beginning an absence that has already ruled him out of Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen's and Wimbledon.

His rehabilitation initially involved fitness work and practice with his left arm. More recent social media footage shows him striking forehands and backhands with his right hand, although the shots appear controlled rather than full-powered. During serving drills, he completes the motion but allows the ball to drop instead of hitting it.

Alcaraz is also missing from the Canadian Open entry list. His next possible tournament is Cincinnati, scheduled for mid-August, but no confirmed return date has been announced by the player or his team. That makes Cincinnati more than a routine comeback event: it would provide the clearest evidence of whether his wrist can withstand competitive tennis before best-of-five matches in New York.

A report cited by Yardbarker's injury update said Alcaraz was due to undergo a final medical check-up, with a possible return to full training if no complications were found. The outcome of that examination has not been confirmed in the supplied reports.

Critical Details

The concern is not simply that Alcaraz has missed several tournaments. Wrist injuries directly affect the force, control and repetition required for groundstrokes and serves. A player may look comfortable during light practice while still being unable to tolerate the speed and workload of a full match.

Former US Open finalist Greg Rusedski focused on exactly that issue. He observed that Alcaraz was hitting lightly, performing movement patterns and completing serving motions without striking the ball. His concern is that the footage does not yet demonstrate the intensity needed for elite competition.

The calendar increases the pressure. Alcaraz won both Cincinnati and the US Open in 2025, meaning he is defending 3,000 ranking points across the North American hard-court stretch. He has already fallen to world No. 3 during his absence after Alexander Zverev's run to the Wimbledon final.

Ranking points

Points awarded for tournament results that determine a player's position in the ATP rankings.

Best-of-five

The men's Grand Slam format in which the first player to win three sets takes the match.

Title defence

A champion's attempt to win the same tournament in the following edition.

Reactions & Responses

Rusedski delivered the sharpest assessment after studying the practice footage.

“I would be shocked if he is playing the US Open!”

He urged Alcaraz not to rush, arguing that missing the remainder of the season would be preferable to aggravating the wrist and extending the problem into 2027. Boris Becker has also described Alcaraz as being far from a return, according to the supplied reports.

Serena Williams offered a strikingly different tone. Beneath one of Alcaraz's Instagram updates, the 23-time major singles champion wrote:

“They not ready”

The comment was widely interpreted as support for Alcaraz's comeback. It also fuelled speculation that Williams and Alcaraz could play together in the US Open Mixed Doubles Challenge, although no partnership has been officially announced.

Putting It in Perspective

Alcaraz's absence has altered the shape of the men's season. He began 2026 by winning the Australian Open and completing a career Grand Slam, then added the Qatar Open before the wrist injury stopped his campaign. During his time away, Jannik Sinner and Zverev have gained ground in the rankings and at major tournaments.

A US Open withdrawal would remove one of the tournament's defending champions and disrupt the rivalry between Alcaraz and Sinner that Rusedski described as central to men's tennis. It could also expose Alcaraz to a further rankings slide once his Cincinnati and US Open points expire.

For Australian tennis followers, Cincinnati will be the most useful indicator rather than another short practice clip. Competitive serving, full-powered groundstrokes and recovery between matches will reveal far more about his readiness for New York than controlled training footage.

Looking Ahead

Alcaraz is confirmed to miss the Canadian Open. Cincinnati remains his next possible event, while his participation in the US Open has not been confirmed.

The decision will depend on his medical clearance, progress in full-intensity training and how the wrist responds if he returns in Cincinnati. Until those steps occur, suggestions that he will play in New York—or miss the rest of 2026—remain predictions rather than announcements from Alcaraz's camp.