Why is Makerfield suddenly the seat everyone is watching?

Last updated: 13 June 2026, 3:00pm BST

Readers across GB should care because a by-election in one Wigan constituency could shape the next phase of national politics. Makerfield votes on 18 June, and Labour’s candidate Andy Burnham has said that, if elected, he would seek to enter any Labour leadership contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer. Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon is trying to stop him, while Restore Britain may split the right-wing vote at a crucial moment.

Behind the Headlines

Makerfield is not usually treated as a political bellwether for the whole country. The BBC describes it as a constituency made up of former mining towns and villages in north-west England, with voters due to choose a new MP on 18 June. But this contest has become unusually significant because Burnham’s campaign is tied directly to the question of who might lead Labour next.

The area has deep Labour roots, yet Reform UK won every ward in the constituency in May’s local elections. That matters because it shows frustration has moved beyond opinion polling and into actual ballot boxes. The Guardian’s editorial frames the seat as a test of whether Labour can still speak to working-class communities where public services, insecure work and local decline dominate the doorstep conversation.

The local picture is mixed. The BBC reports that wages are above the national average and home ownership is high in parts of the constituency, while areas such as Platt Bridge, Abram and Hindley face sharper deprivation. That split explains why different voters can look at the same place and see either resilience or neglect.

Here's What Happened

The by-election was triggered after Josh Simons resigned to give Burnham a path back to Parliament, according to The Telegraph’s account of Robert Kenyon’s campaign. Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, is presenting himself as Labour but not quite this Labour: experienced, recognisable and willing to distance himself from Starmer’s government.

Reform’s Kenyon, a local gas engineer and plumber, came second in Makerfield at the 2024 general election with 31.8 per cent against Labour’s 45.2 per cent. Since then, Reform has gained ground locally. Kenyon told The Telegraph he sees the current contest as a “two-horse race” against Burnham and described the by-election as “50-50”.

The Independent reported constituency polling by Opinium for Forward Democracy showing Burnham on 46 per cent, Kenyon on 41 per cent, and Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd on roughly 7 per cent. The poll had a margin of error just under 5 per cent, which means the apparent Labour lead cannot be treated as secure. The Conservatives were around 2.5 per cent, with the Greens and Liberal Democrats each below 2 per cent.

By-election

A vote held in one constituency to choose a new MP between general elections.

Margin of error

The range within which a poll’s result may vary from the true level of support.

Deposit

A sum candidates pay to stand; it is lost if they fail to reach the required vote share.

Restore Britain is the complication. The Independent says the party, founded by Rupert Lowe after his suspension from Reform UK, appears to be taking support from the same pool of voters as Reform. Professor Sir John Curtice told the paper that Restore could “make the difference between Reform winning or not winning”.

Voices & Opinions

Voters interviewed by ITV News and The i Paper repeatedly turned the local contest into a judgement on national leadership. ITV’s focus group found strong dislike of Starmer among Labour, Reform and Restore voters alike, while several voters said Burnham seemed more personable or more convincing than the current prime minister.

If I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level and give this constituency maximum power and influence.

Kenyon’s pitch is different: he argues he is rooted in the area and not using Makerfield as a platform for Downing Street. The Telegraph quoted him attacking Burnham as a “miserable cardboard cutout”, a line that captures Reform’s attempt to turn Burnham’s national ambitions into a local liability.

On the ground, residents describe a campaign that has become impossible to ignore. ITV News reported voters speaking about constant flyers, phone calls and door-knocking, while one participant said voting in Makerfield felt like helping decide “who’s going to be the next PM”.

The Bigger Picture

For Labour, a Burnham win would give him a parliamentary base and strengthen the argument that he can beat Reform in a direct fight. The Guardian says his return could widen Labour’s debate on constitutional reform, electoral reform, public control and spending. For Starmer, however, even a Labour hold may sharpen questions about why Burnham is being treated as the more potent political figure.

For Reform, victory would be a major breakthrough against one of Labour’s best-known figures. Defeat would still allow the party to argue that it pushed Labour hard in a seat historically associated with the left. The more uncomfortable lesson may be the rise of Restore Britain, because even a small rival on the right can change the result in a tight constituency.

The local issues behind the national drama are concrete. BBC reporting points to illegal dumping in Bickershaw, flooding in Platt Bridge, pressure on volunteers at Ashton Bears rugby league club, and questions about whether re-industrialisation can bring better jobs than warehousing. Those details matter because they explain why slogans about a “broken” country are landing with some voters.

The Road Ahead

Voters in Makerfield are due to cast their ballots on 18 June, with ITV News reporting that results are expected in the early hours of the morning. The contest is close enough that turnout, late switching and the Restore Britain vote could decide the outcome.

If Burnham wins, the national focus will shift quickly from Makerfield to Labour’s future leadership. If Kenyon wins, Reform will claim it has defeated Labour on one of the most symbolic battlegrounds in British politics.